Prospects for a New Agreement between the US and Iran

 

1. Reports from last month highlighted that American and Iranian officials engaged in discussions in the Sultanate of Oman, which is emerging as a key location for dialogue between the two. 2. On February 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to reinstate maximum pressure on Iran. Yet, he simultaneously conveyed a willingness to negotiate a new agreement, with a firm demand that Iran must not be allowed to attain nuclear weapon capabilities. 3. Inside Iran, perspectives on these negotiations remain divided. President Pezeshikian has reiterated Iran's openness to dialogue, with some officials referencing a "fatwa" that forbids the development of nuclear weapons. In contrast, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has dismissed negotiations with the United States as "not smart, wise, or honorable," highlighting the internal complexities surrounding this issue. 4. The recent visit of the Emir of Qatar to Tehran signals a renewed diplomatic effort. Official statements during this visit did not clarify whether Qatar would assume a new mediating role between the US and Iran. Qatar has successfully mediated between the two historically. Qatar's relations with Iran improved during the Gulf crisis from 2017 to 2021. Given these dynamics, does the opportunity for a renewed agreement have better chances?

- Recent regional developments, particularly the weakening of the "axis of resistance," suggest a potential opening for diplomatic engagement. However, reaching an agreement will require navigating challenging negotiations, which will be heavily influenced by the demands of both parties and the necessity of reconciling divergent positions.

If Tehran insists that any final agreement be ratified by a vote in the US Congress, Trump can secure such authorization, especially if he frames the agreement as a diplomatic victory for the US.

Israel's position is a significant complicating factor. Nevertheless, if the United States is committed to pursuing a diplomatic resolution, there are no insurmountable obstacles to reaching an accord. The broad regional rejection of the JCPOA in 2015 did not prevent its eventual conclusion. If the chances of a renewed agreement increase, Saudi Arabia can serve as a viable mediator in the ongoing U.S.-Iran dialogue.