US Defense Budget: Signs of a Changing Global Order?

 

- Unexpectedly, the US Secretary of Defense has unveiled plans to gradually reduce the defense budget, aiming for an 8% annual cut over the coming years.
- Aiming for budget reduction, President Trump has reiterated his desire to reinitiate nuclear arms control talks with Russia and China—envisioning a future where all three nations agree to halve their massive defense expenditures.
- This contrasts sharply with his first term, when the National Security Strategy was centered on rebuilding military strength in response to global strategic threats, particularly from adversaries like Russia and China.
- As Trump undertakes his new term, he is shifting away from the relentless arms race that has long defined international relations.

What does this mean for the global competition?

Beyond budget cutting, this shift carries profound international implications:
1- A Change in the US Threat Perceptions, particularly with Russia and China.
2- Potential for Reduced Tensions globally.

Will this strategy succeed?
Success hinges on two key factors:
1- Internally: His ability to contain the deep-state factions that favor wars and military interventions.
2- Globally: Balancing Global Security Demands: It will be essential to achieve a credible "security for all" that satisfies not only US interests but also addresses the strategic concerns of Russia and China.

Ukraine is in a Precarious Position

As promised during his campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump remains steadfast in his commitment to ending the war in Ukraine.
- In February 2025, his rhetoric toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky became increasingly harsh.
- Trump has labeled Zelensky a "dictator without elections" and claimed that his approval rating in Ukraine is only 4%.

In a defiant response, Zelensky accused Trump of "living in a world of disinformation."
- U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance has warned that Zelensky will “pay a price” for his criticisms of Trump.

On another Level:

Trump has proposed a deal that would grant the U.S. rights to extract Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in exchange for the financial support it provided to Ukraine.
Zelensky rejected this offer, stressing that discussions about profit distribution would only be considered once clear security guarantees were established.

The Bottom Line:
Zelensky understands that Trump does not tolerate being challenged. Nonetheless, fully aware that his time in office is short, he aims to depart the political stage as a "hero."

Meanwhile, Ukraine finds itself in a dire situation—having suffered the loss of an entire generation, significant territorial concessions, and a declining economy.
Placing faith in Europe to change the tide of the war, whether through military might or diplomatic efforts, is a perilous illusion; from the outset, the U.S. has dictated the course of this conflict and holds the power to end it whenever it chooses.
Note: The upcoming German elections could significantly alter Germany's stance on Ukraine, introducing new dynamics into this ongoing crisis.

Prospects for a New Agreement between the US and Iran

 

1. Reports from last month highlighted that American and Iranian officials engaged in discussions in the Sultanate of Oman, which is emerging as a key location for dialogue between the two. 2. On February 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to reinstate maximum pressure on Iran. Yet, he simultaneously conveyed a willingness to negotiate a new agreement, with a firm demand that Iran must not be allowed to attain nuclear weapon capabilities. 3. Inside Iran, perspectives on these negotiations remain divided. President Pezeshikian has reiterated Iran's openness to dialogue, with some officials referencing a "fatwa" that forbids the development of nuclear weapons. In contrast, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has dismissed negotiations with the United States as "not smart, wise, or honorable," highlighting the internal complexities surrounding this issue. 4. The recent visit of the Emir of Qatar to Tehran signals a renewed diplomatic effort. Official statements during this visit did not clarify whether Qatar would assume a new mediating role between the US and Iran. Qatar has successfully mediated between the two historically. Qatar's relations with Iran improved during the Gulf crisis from 2017 to 2021. Given these dynamics, does the opportunity for a renewed agreement have better chances?

- Recent regional developments, particularly the weakening of the "axis of resistance," suggest a potential opening for diplomatic engagement. However, reaching an agreement will require navigating challenging negotiations, which will be heavily influenced by the demands of both parties and the necessity of reconciling divergent positions.

If Tehran insists that any final agreement be ratified by a vote in the US Congress, Trump can secure such authorization, especially if he frames the agreement as a diplomatic victory for the US.

Israel's position is a significant complicating factor. Nevertheless, if the United States is committed to pursuing a diplomatic resolution, there are no insurmountable obstacles to reaching an accord. The broad regional rejection of the JCPOA in 2015 did not prevent its eventual conclusion. If the chances of a renewed agreement increase, Saudi Arabia can serve as a viable mediator in the ongoing U.S.-Iran dialogue.