The Cohabitation Theory was introduced by Leila Nicolas in her book "Global and Regional Strategies in the Middle East: In Pursuit of Hegemony," published by Routledge in August 2024.
In Chapter 11 of the book, the theory and its components are explained and tested in the contexts of Lebanon and Iraq, where the US and Iran cohabitate as major powers in weak states. Their cohabitation involves elements of cooperation, competition, and conflict.
The "cohabitation theory" is a new idea, explaining how a Great Power and a Regional Power interact to gain influence in a weaker state. Cohabitation occurs when a global power exerts influence in a region outside its immediate geographical sphere, while a regional power has a natural influence in a weaker or smaller country through religion, culture, language, and history.
Cohabitation is typically a de-facto situation, often without an explicit agreement or settlement. It involves accepting a reality that cannot be changed or avoiding a battle that is difficult to win.
A global power like the US may coexist with the de facto influence of a regional power (Iran) in a weak state, but it does not tolerate coexistence with a competing global power like China or Russia. Rivalry between global powers in a weak state can turn it into a shatterbelt or proxy war zone rather than a form of cohabitation.
Entering a "cohabitation situation" does not lead to permanent stability or peace in the weak state. Peace is fragile and often disrupted when one party changes the balance of power in its favor, or when the interests of competing rivals clash in the region or weak state.
Check Chapter 11 here in this Book:
Nicolas, L. (2024). Global and Regional Strategies in the Middle East: In Pursuit of Hegemony (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003460152
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